Wayanad Landslide Tragedy Linked to 10% Heavier Rainfall Due to Climate Change: Study
14.08.2024: A new study has revealed that the devastating landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad district were intensified by climate change, with rainfall in the area becoming 10% heavier due to global warming. Conducted by a global team of scientists, the rapid attribution study highlights the growing impact of climate change on extreme weather events, warning that such occurrences may become more frequent as the Earth’s climate continues to warm.
Climate Change Amplifies Rainfall Intensity
The research, led by scientists from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, was conducted under the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group. They analyzed climate models with high-resolution data specifically designed to assess the rainfall patterns in Wayanad. The findings indicated a significant increase in rainfall intensity, which can be attributed to climate change. The study also predicts that if global temperatures rise by another two degrees Celsius, rainfall intensity in the region could increase by an additional 4%.
The Role of a Warming Atmosphere
The scientists explained that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall. Specifically, for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature, the atmosphere’s moisture-holding capacity increases by about 7%. This relationship between global warming and extreme rainfall has been observed in other parts of the world, including India, where the frequency of heavy one-day rainfall events is on the rise.
Local Factors Contributing to Landslides
While the study emphasizes the role of climate change in intensifying rainfall, it also notes that other local factors have contributed to the landslide risk in Wayanad. These include the extensive loss of forest cover, quarrying activities, and changes in land use. According to a 2022 study, Wayanad has lost 62% of its forest cover between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover has surged by nearly 1,800%. This deforestation, combined with heavy rainfall, has made the slopes in the district more susceptible to landslides.
Wayanad: A High-Risk Region
Kerala, particularly the Western Ghats region, is highly prone to landslides. According to ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are located in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th. The region’s vulnerability is further exacerbated by the warming of the Arabian Sea, which has led to the formation of deep cloud systems and extremely heavy rainfall in short periods, increasing the likelihood of landslides.
The Wayanad landslide tragedy is a stark reminder of the growing impact of climate change on extreme weather events. As global temperatures continue to rise, regions like Wayanad are likely to face more frequent and intense rainfall, increasing the risk of landslides and other natural disasters. The study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate climate change and protect vulnerable communities from its devastating effects.