Rishi Sunak Set for Wipeout in Upcoming UK Elections, Show Opinion Polls
16.06.2024: The UK is heading into a pivotal election, and the latest opinion polls paint a bleak picture for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party. Released just past the halfway mark of the election campaign, these polls suggest a significant lead for the Labour Party, with some experts warning of potential “electoral extinction” for the Conservatives in the July 4th election.
Overview of the Election Campaign
The election campaign has seen both the Conservative and Labour parties outline their manifestos. The timing of this election surprised many, as Sunak announced an early election on May 22, contrary to expectations that he would wait until later in the year. This decision was made amid ongoing economic challenges, including the highest inflation in 40 years, which has affected living standards across the UK.
Poll Results
Savanta Poll
A survey by Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph, conducted between June 12 and June 14, indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment:
- Labour Party: 46% (up 2 points from the previous poll)
- Conservative Party: 21% (down 4 points)
This 25-point lead for Labour is the largest since the tenure of Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, remarked, “Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.”
Survation Poll
The Survation poll for the Sunday Times, conducted from May 31 to June 13, forecasts an even more dire outcome for the Conservatives:
- Labour Party: 40%
- Conservative Party: 24%
- Reform UK: 12%
According to this poll, Labour could secure 456 seats in the 650-member House of Commons, while the Conservatives might be reduced to just 72 seats, marking their lowest representation in nearly 200 years.
Opinium Poll
An Opinium poll for the Observer, conducted between June 12 and June 14, reflects similar trends:
- Labour Party: 40%
- Conservative Party: 23%
- Reform UK: 14%
Implications
The consistent results across multiple polls suggest a substantial lead for Labour, with the Conservative Party losing significant ground to both Labour and smaller parties like Reform UK. The upcoming election results could reshape the political landscape in the UK, with the Conservatives facing one of their most challenging electoral battles in recent history.
As voters prepare to cast their postal ballots, the Conservative Party will need to address these challenges urgently to avoid a potential wipeout in the upcoming elections.