Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Prashant Kishor Highlights Missed Opportunities for Congress-Led Opposition
22.05.2024: The Congress-led opposition could have been in a stronger position for the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections 2024 if it had capitalized on key moments when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was vulnerable. Political strategist Prashant Kishor identified three significant opportunities missed by the opposition since 2014.
Missed Opportunity #1: State Assembly Elections (2015-2016)
Prashant Kishor highlighted the period between 2015 and 2016 as the first major opportunity. During this time, the BJP faced several defeats in state assembly elections.
“In January 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party won the Delhi assembly elections. The BJP lost the Bihar elections in November of the same year. By May 2016, assembly elections were held in Assam, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. The BJP only managed to win Assam, and that too in an alliance,” Kishor explained in an interview with NDTV.
This period, when Prime Minister Modi’s popularity was still solidifying post-2014, offered a crucial window for the Congress-led opposition to make a comeback.
Missed Opportunity #2: Post-Demonetisation Turbulence (2016-2018)
The second missed opportunity came after the 2016 demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes. This policy led to widespread economic and rural distress. Although the BJP won the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017, there were significant protests, including those by the Patels in Gujarat and others in Maharashtra.
“In the November 2017 Gujarat polls, the Congress performed well despite losing. The BJP managed to win by a narrow margin of about 15 seats. Subsequently, the BJP lost the Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh elections,” Kishor noted.
This 15-17 month period from mid-2017 to the end of 2018 saw the BJP on the back foot, but the opposition failed to seize the moment.
Missed Opportunity #3: Post-Second Covid-19 Wave (June 2021)
The third missed opportunity occurred in June 2021, following the second wave of Covid-19, when there was a noticeable dip in Prime Minister Modi’s approval ratings. At this time, the BJP had just lost the West Bengal state elections.
“The opposition missed another crucial moment post the second Covid-19 wave. There was significant dissatisfaction across the country, but the opposition did not effectively capitalize on this,” Kishor pointed out.
The INDIA Bloc: A Missed Chance in 2023
Kishor also mentioned the formation of the INDIA bloc in June 2023 as another potential turning point. Although there was initial excitement about a unified challenge against the BJP, the momentum did not sustain.
“For months, there was no significant progress. This inaction cost the opposition valuable time while the BJP had already begun its campaign under PM Modi,” he said.
Current Scenario and Predictions
With voting for 49 seats on May 20, the election to 428 of the 543 seats is complete. The final two phases will be held on May 25 and June 1, with vote counting on June 4. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) aims for a record third term with a target of winning 400 seats. The Congress-led opposition, under the INDIA bloc, faces a formidable challenge.
Prashant Kishor has predicted a strong return for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. According to Kishor, the opposition’s inability to capitalize on previous opportunities has significantly advantaged the BJP.
As the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 approach their final stages, the missed opportunities highlighted by Prashant Kishor underscore the challenges faced by the Congress-led opposition in mounting an effective campaign against the BJP. With crucial phases still ahead, the political landscape remains dynamic, but the opposition’s missed chances may well determine the outcome.