Explained: European Union Elections and the Rise of Far-Right Parties
10.06.2024: The recent European Union elections have brought significant shifts in the political landscape, with notable gains for far-right parties. Despite these changes, Europe’s centrist groups remain relatively stable, and voter turnout was higher than in 2019 among the 27 member states. Here are five key takeaways from the vote.
1. Far-Right Parties Gain Ground
Far-right parties emerged as significant players in several countries. In France, Italy, and Austria, these parties secured top positions. In Germany, the AfD outperformed Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD party, finishing in second place. The hard-right also saw success in the Netherlands. However, experts caution against overestimating this surge. Francesco Nicoli of the Bruegel think tank notes that these results are from “second-order elections,” suggesting the impact might be limited.
2. Unity Among Far-Right Groups Uncertain
A major question is whether the two primary far-right groups in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), will unite to form a supergroup. Experts like Christine Verger from the Jacques Delors think tank are skeptical. Verger believes a unification between ID and ECR is unlikely. Despite the success of Italy’s far-right prime minister Giorgia Meloni, who leads the Brothers of Italy party, the far-right’s influence on EU legislation might remain constrained.
3. Setback for Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party suffered a significant defeat, losing to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. In response, Macron dissolved France’s national parliament and called for snap elections. Despite this setback, Macron remains a powerful figure on the European stage. However, the poor performance of his Renaissance party could reduce its influence within the Renew grouping and the European Parliament.
4. Von der Leyen Poised for Second Term
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a relatively strong showing. She aims for a second five-year term and appears to have the necessary support. Her party, the European People’s Party (EPP), remains the largest group in the parliament. Experts believe she can secure additional votes from the Socialists and Democrats, along with potential support from liberals, the ECR, and Greens, even accounting for some defections.
5. Disappointing Results for the Greens
The Greens political group faced a tough election, losing around 20 seats. This outcome aligns with pre-election trends. Rising concerns over security, cost of living, migration, and the war in Ukraine have overshadowed environmental issues. Nicoli points out that right-wing opponents have effectively directed voter dissatisfaction towards the EU’s environmental policies. However, Green lawmaker Bas Eickhout sees the results as mixed, noting successes in the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, and Lithuania.
Increased Voter Turnout
Voter turnout was a bright spot in these elections, reaching the highest level in 20 years at approximately 51%, according to provisional EU data. This is an encouraging sign for democracy, although turnout still lags behind national elections, particularly in countries like Slovakia and Lithuania. Heather Grabbe of the Bruegel think tank views this increased participation as a positive development.
Far-Right Parties Remain Divided
Despite their gains, far-right parties in the European Parliament are not united. The AfD, for example, is politically isolated after being removed from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group due to controversial remarks by its candidate Maximilian Krah. Several other far-right parties are also non-aligned, predicted to secure 45 seats.
While the far-right surge introduces new challenges for the European Union, the centrist political groups remain a stabilizing force. The upcoming coalition-building process will be crucial as centrists seek to counter the far-right’s influence and address the issues that drove voters to support extremist parties.