2024 Elections Forecast: Economist Surjit Bhalla Predicts Strong BJP Performance and Tamil Nadu Surprises

Credit NDTV News

21.04.2024 : Top economist Surjit Bhalla has made bold predictions about the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024, suggesting that the BJP could secure an impressive 330 to 350 seats independently, excluding its alliance partners. In an interview with NDTV, Bhalla shared insights from his latest book ‘How We Vote’, focusing on the voter mindset and potential election outcomes.

According to Bhalla’s analysis, the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to outperform its 2019 results by a significant margin, possibly experiencing a 5 to 7 per cent increase in seats. He highlighted the potential for this election to be a ‘wave’ election, although acknowledging that such dynamics are not guaranteed.

In contrast, Bhalla expressed a less optimistic view for the Opposition Congress party, suggesting they may secure around 44 seats, representing a 2 per cent decrease compared to their 2014 performance.

One of the surprising predictions made by Bhalla is regarding the BJP’s potential gains in Tamil Nadu, traditionally considered a weak area for the party. He suggested that the BJP could win at least five seats in Tamil Nadu, indicating a shift in the state’s political landscape.

Bhalla attributed these potential gains to improvements in people’s living conditions and economic factors, emphasizing that India’s voting patterns are largely influenced by perceived improvements in quality of life.

During the interview, Bhalla also criticized the reliability of data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), cautioning against selective use of data by the Opposition during election campaigns.

As the Lok Sabha elections progress, Bhalla’s insights offer a glimpse into the evolving political dynamics and potential outcomes, highlighting the BJP’s strength and unexpected gains in key regions like Tamil Nadu.

From – NDTV